The Keep is the portfolio value you need today—before withdrawing this year's living expenses—to fund the years ahead and still reach your long-term goal.
The Keep Calculator™ is an on-line, non-downloadable software calculator for retirement planning — providing temporary use of on-line non-downloadable software for providing online retirement calculators for individual consumers.
A plain-English explanation of the one number that tells you whether your retirement is funded.
Most retirement planning tools are built around a single question: how much can you safely withdraw each year? They hand you a percentage — the 4% rule, a Monte Carlo probability, a withdrawal rate — and tell you to live within it.
The Keep Method starts from the other end. Instead of telling you how much you can take out, it tells you how much you need to have right now. Given what you plan to spend, what income you expect to receive, and what you want to leave behind — what is the least your portfolio needs to be worth today?
That number is your Keep.
The Keep is a present-value calculation. It takes every future year your portfolio has to cover — your annual living costs minus any guaranteed income that year — and discounts each one back to today at your real return rate. Add those up, plus the present value of whatever you want left at the end of the plan, and you have your Keep.
In plain English: the Keep is the lump sum you'd need today, earning your assumed real return, to fund every remaining year of spending and still land on your goal.
Several things about the Keep are worth understanding.
It's calculated in today's dollars. The Keep uses a real return — your investment return after subtracting inflation. That means $54,000 of living costs means $54,000 in today's purchasing power, not some inflated future figure that's hard to picture. The math handles inflation inside the return assumption so you can think in money you actually understand.
It accounts for Social Security and pension income. In years when Social Security or a pension covers part of your spending need, your portfolio only has to cover the rest. The Keep nets out guaranteed income year by year, so a plan with a $27,000 Social Security benefit isn't the same as one without it — and the Keep reflects that difference.
It falls each year. In a steady-spending plan, the Keep generally declines over time because there's one fewer year left to fund. This is often the opposite of what retirees expect: the goal gets easier to meet as you age, not harder, because you need the money for fewer future years.
It's a floor, not a target. The Keep is the minimum your portfolio needs to be, not a forecast of where it will go. Above the Keep means the scenario is funded under your assumptions. Below the Keep means the plan needs a look — which levers to pull: spending, claiming age, longevity, landing goal.
The Keep is designed for an annual check. Once a year — October works well, when you have a real year-end number coming — pull your actual balance and run it against your Keep. Are you above the line? Below it? By how much?
That's the review. Not a prediction, not a probability score, not a Monte Carlo run. One number, once a year, compared to your actual balance.
If you're above the Keep, your scenario is funded. You can choose what to do with the surplus: spend more, give more, invest it, or let it compound as extra cushion.
If you're below the Keep, that's information — not a verdict. Adjust the inputs and see what changes the picture. A higher Social Security start age, a lower landing goal, a modest spending trim, a longer working period: the Keep shows you immediately how each lever moves the line.
The Keep is a deterministic tool. It uses one return assumption and produces one number. It can't predict what markets will do, and it doesn't replace tax planning, long-term care planning, or professional judgment about your specific situation.
Many people use the Keep alongside a Monte Carlo tool. Monte Carlo tells you the probability your plan survives many simulated market paths. The Keep tells you, given your assumptions, what your balance needs to be today. They answer different questions and work well together.
The Keep also can't tell you what assumptions to enter. Your real return, your longevity age, your living costs — those require thought and probably a conversation with a financial advisor. The Keep shows you the implications of whatever you enter.
Ready to calculate your Keep?
Run your numbers in the Keep Calculator →This article is educational and is not individualized financial, tax, or investment advice.